Amata's Pacific Notebook: THANK YOU, JOHN HOWARD
December 28, 2007

by Aumua Amata
Reprinted from The Samoa News

While America's top foreign policymakers naturally are focused on events unfolding in Pakistan as 2007 draws to a close, there are some officials at State Department who are keeping their eyes on events in the Pacific, where two elections last month could force significant adjustments to the U.S. posture in the region.

Rolling into 2008, it is still unclear what the meaning is of the November 19 election in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), which has a parliamentary style government. With 33 seats at stake, the incumbent party and the opposition each have 14 or 15 of the 17 seats needed to form a government; the remaining four or five independents hold the balance. The outcome probably will not be known until early January, when the Nitijela (parliament) holds leadership elections, which includes election of a president.

The opposition has been very critical of the financial package the government negotiated last year under the Compact of Free Association with the United States and probably would try to revisit the issue with Washington if it comes into power. Recognition of China also could be at stake. RMI currently has diplomatic relations with Taiwan but some opposition figures have suggested that recognition might be switched to Beijing.

Less than a week after the RMI polls, Australian voters took a much more decisive action in ending over 11 years of Liberal Party-National Party Coalition government by sweeping the Labor Party back into power with a net gain of 23 seats in the Lower House. The new Labor Government under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd now has 83 seats in the 150-seat House. In the process, Prime Minister John Howard became only the second sitting prime minister of Australia to lose his own seat in parliament at the same time his party was losing the election.

The election of the Labor Government already is presenting some challenges to the U.S. In a coincidence of timing, the Bali Conference on Climate Change opened just a few days after the election and Rudd used the opportunity to sign the Kyoto protocol only hours after being sworn in as prime minister. Under John Howard, Australia was aligned with the U.S. against the protocol, which both countries refused to sign on grounds of the potential impact on their countries' economies.

In addition to Bali, Rudd made a pre-Christmas visit to Iraq and Afghanistan and redeemed another of his party's campaign pledges by announcing that Australian combat troops would leave Iraq by June of next year and would not be replaced. Right after the Australian election, Gov. Togiola voiced a rather strong opinion of Mr. Rudd's pledge, which I will let stand without further comment but while the number of troops involved in this withdrawal is not great, it does represent a further isolation of the U.S. in the Gulf region.

It also remains to be seen what shifts in Australian leadership will mean for our own Pacific neighborhood. During the Howard years, Australia was sometimes described as America's "deputy sheriff" in the region. There is no doubt the Pacific is not the quiet ANZUS lake it was a generation ago. Australia's relations with Papua New Guinea have been strained recently and its role in the Solomon Islands through the Regional Assistance Mission (RAMSI) there has not been without controversy. Other trouble spots of one sort or another have included Fiji and Tonga. Nor have many of the region's governments been happy with Washington's and Canberra's environmental policies. How Australia policies in these areas will change and what that means for the U.S. position in the region remains to be seen.

There will be plenty of time to dwell on the impact of Australian elections on relations with the U.S. and with Pacific countries. And, of course, further uncertainties lie ahead with a change of administrations coming in Washington in just a year's time. But, for now, I want to spend a few moments reflecting on John Howard, who was Australia's second longest serving prime minister. I first met him in Canberra in 1986 when, as Leader of the Opposition, he hosted a reception for a group of traveling American young political leaders, in which I was included. At the time, at the height of Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke's popularity, it did not seem likely Howard would ever be head of government, let alone serve for such a long period.

Howard's ignominious departure from government and politics now two decades later reminds me of a conversation I had with our late Governor Tauese not long before he passed away. Tauese already had been re-elected and since he was term limited, I asked him if he might run for something else or maybe wait four years and try to return as governor. A lot of people, including me, were not aware that from time to time Tauese sought my dad's advice on tough issues.

Tauese told me of a conversation he had with my father shortly after his first election in 1996. He said my dad, the second longest serving governor in American history, told him that the one regret he had was that he stayed too long. "Do not wear out your welcome with the people," he told Tauese. "There is always the chance you will run in one election too many." So, Tauese told me that after his second term was over he had no plans ever to run again for public office. "We all benefit from time to time by electing new people with fresh ideas." Sadly, of course, he never had the opportunity to become an elder statesman.

Although we did not view it that way at the time, my dad's forced retirement was a blessing for our family because we had more quality time with him in the four years he had remaining in his life. In his final term, he already had visible health problems, the seriousness of which we did not realize until after he left office. Those problems contributed to his lack of energy on the campaign trail in 1992 and certainly played an important role in his loss.

John Howard might have benefited from my dad's advice not to run one time too many but, at age 68, he still enjoys good health and now can spend more time with his children and grandchildren. No matter how one feels about some of the more controversial policies of his government, he deserves to be thanked for his years of devoted service to the Australian people.

While the Washington media always focuses much attention on Great Britain as the staunchest ally of the United States, so too has Australia been just as reliable under John Howard's leadership. Therefore, as an American as well as a Samoan, I would like to take this opportunity to express my appreciation to the departed prime minister. It is our Samoan way. My country is grateful for your friendship and your service. Thank you, John Howard.

As always, if you have any comments, I can be reached at aumuaamata@mail.com or by phone at 699-9609.

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