Amata's Pacific Notebook: RUNNING WITH THE 'BIG KAHUNAS'
November 30, 2007

Reprinted from Samoa News
by Amata Aumua

Although some reformers have expressed dismay at the outcome of this month's midterm elections in the Northern Mariana Islands there was at least one seed of change planted in the results.

First, I would be remiss if I did not congratulate the CNMI Republican Party for regaining its customary majority in the House, which it lost four years ago to the upstart Covenant Party. In January, Republicans will control at least 12 and possibly as many as 15 of the chamber's 20 seats, depending on the outcome of one recount and the expectation that two former Republicans who ran as independents for tactical reasons will caucus with the majority.

The wave of change expected by some pundits in the wake of the commonwealth's well known economic troubles did not materialize. The next legislature will be dominated by re-elected incumbents and seasoned former legislators-including two former Republican speakers returning to public life, not a sea of new faces.

However, it is one of the newcomers, Tina Sablan, who has drawn much of the media attention for her unlikely victory against all the odds. The Northern Marianas shares some similarities with American Samoa: the populations are roughly the same size and so is the proportion of local born people to immigrant populations. Moreover, the politics of both territories still is very much family based and the political climates have not been hospitable to women candidates for office in either place.

In order to win, Tina had to overcome not only her gender but the lack of two maternal family lines, because her mother is neither Chamorro nor Carolinian, the two native ethnic population groups. Moreover, Tina is only 26 years old, so her political experience is quite limited. Making the odds of her success even longer, she chose to forego the traditional trappings of campaigning, such as village meetings, billboards and newspaper advertising, in favor of weekly citizens forums' and skillful use of the internet. Further, she held no rallies or fund-raisers and eschewed party affiliation.

While she ran a decidedly low budget affair, she did not lack for free media, what with her passionate, two-year long crusade on a number of issues, which won the attention of both the press and the politicians. Although she fell short on the number of signatures needed to put an Open Government Act on the referendum ballot, she did force legislators to adopt some milder reforms on their own. And her petition effort to reduce the legislature to part-time status also fell short due to lack of time to gather enough signatures.

At the same time, however, her active support for gubernatorial runoffs helped propel that measure to passage and a lawsuit she co-filed with a senator prompted the CNMI Supreme Court to reapportion the House districts just before the election to better reflect population shifts since the last census. Two new house seats were added in the process.

In the face of all obstacles but aided by her tireless activism, Tina, on a platform of government openness and reform, managed to win a seat in the lower house, edging out an incumbent and a former incumbent, among others, in a multi-seat electoral district. She has been described as tireless and well prepared on the issues.

Now comes the hard part. There is a whale of a difference between campaigning and governing. If she continues to play the role of a gadfly outsider inside the House, she runs the risk of being marginalized. She will need to decide if she wants to be the focal point for the disaffected among the citizenry or build a record of legislative achievement on their behalf. It would be difficult to juggle both roles, even for a veteran politician.

She is one of only three independents coming into a House that is steeped in the tradition of the party system, where parties prevail. Like the U.S. Congress, it is a system in which the parties will pass out committee assignments, determine member budgets and allocate staff resources. With the membership being overwhelmingly affiliated with one of the three parties, the three independents will have little leverage to force attention on their proposals.

So, Tina has some important decisions to make. She can either remain a true independent or caucus with one of the parties. Of course, if I were advising her, I would urge her to caucus with the Republicans, because the voters apparently perceived them as the agents of change. Whichever party she chooses, however, if she works hard to learn the system, burrows in and focuses on some issues where she really can make a difference, she likely will have a far greater impact than by being an agent provocateur who might find her political career over in two short years. There is no reason she could not do that while remaining consistent with her principles.

History has not been kind to women legislators seeking re-election in CNMI, even those who were affiliated with a party, were part of the majority and worked within the system. And Tina will be mindful that her narrow, sixth-place finish in a six- seat district was not exactly a mandate, given the overall tenor of the election. History also teaches us that in a democracy, change usually comes from within.

Tina also has another constituency to think about: the other young women in the commonwealth who might be inspired to follow her into politics. Those young women will be watching to see if she now can run with the Big Kahunas who will dominate the legislature as the commonwealth moves into the gubernatorial phase of the election cycle.

And we'll be watching in American Samoa, too.

As always, I welcome your comments at - aumuaamata@mail.com